Welcome back to another episode of what has become a weekly update documenting my slow but sure descent into madness. Just kidding... unless 👀. This week I wanted to talk about why you might find an ex-finance-industry software engineer and PhD computer scientist meandering around the Bulgarian countryside in mid March. Plus a little bit about the business side of things. Lets start with the business bit...
If you've been following along for the last few months you'll know that I've tried (unsuccessfully) to narrow down on a software-as-a-service (SaaS) market offering. Having reflected on the experience, I believe it comes down to one thing; marketing. I naturally don't enjoy talking to people unless I have to, and so repeatedly overcoming that gut feeling has been prohibitively challenging. That said, I also don't mind admitting that I still haven't done a 'full shove' in the sense of committing to a single idea and pursuing it for longer than a few weeks. Following the newest shiniest idea has proven too seductive. Sigh...
But, there is also a stow away on my thúng chai whispering dangerous ideas into my ear. Over the last 10 months (and in spite of recent developments in the Middle East) the global index has been chugging along nicely, up 10% since my departure from London . This growth has invited a new question. Instead of 'could I build something in 12 months which could generate enough income to sustain my lifestyle?', the new question is 'could I live off my investments indefinitely?'. What if that after work drinks was the last one I ever had? What if the last standup I was in was actually the last one I ever did? These are questions I've been unable to ignore, especially as I experience low cost of living countries (Georgia and now Bulgaria) and see that the quality of life is by many metrics much higher than my (very expensive) homeland of the UK. That brings us neatly to what I would describe as;
Bulgaria is a post-soviet European member state. It borders Turkey, Greece, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Romania, and is the poorest country by income in the EU . It is also facing a population collapse , along with an increasing urbanisation (77.4% in 2026 up from 72% in 2010). These stats all point towards not only a pretty grim future for Bulgaria, but I would argue an existential one. If as a country they are unable to dramatically change course, then it's entirely possible that they simply fade away over the next century.
But lets not get ahead of ourselves. There are some (I think strong) reasons to be optimistic as we look to the future. Geographically Bulgaria is a gateway to the Middle East and Asia, and is a key transit route for the road part of the Chinese Belt and Road economic corridor . It is also one of the most tax-competitive countries in the EU (language barriers aside) with a flat corporate and personal income tax rate of 10%, which has some caveats ( cough national insurance contributions cough ), but is still overall positive in terms of attracting established corporations to the country. And importantly to reiterate, it's a European member state...
So lets say you're on a group project and one of your teammates looks like they're about to start eating the crayons. What do you do? If you know you're probably going to be in more group projects together in the future, it makes sense for you to help this teammate in any way you can. After all, a chain is only as strong as its weakest link, right? Now I'm not saying in any way that Bulgaria is the crayon eating teammate, but I'm using this scenario to illustrate that I see the EU as a team, and of all of the members Bulgaria seems to be the one with most room to grow. This is exciting because it means that it only takes a few good moves to have a disproportionately positive impact. A airport upgrade, a railway refresh, even a few modern housing developments or standardised web portals could turn something like finding an investment opportunity, planning a holiday, and other stuff much smoother than it currently is. There are also some easy wins like English language signage (not because I'm half English, but because it's a 'global' language), which turns the 'Russian vibe' (the cyrillic alphabet was actually created in Bulgaria) into something universally approachable. This is also not to say I think Bulgarian culture or language should be watered down in any way, just that in investment terms accessibility is strategically important; from buying materials to organising transportation and everything inbetween.
The big question is what does this all mean from an asset management perspective, and going back to the dangerous question about living off investments? The ongoing urbanisation and current state of play means that the rural real estate market in several regions of Bulgaria is essentially disconnected from the material cost of development. In other words, you can purchase land and cadastral-recognised (important) structures for cheaper than it would cost to build them. This is also true of rural areas in other EU states, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy, and more. However, Bulgarian plots are legally habitable even if substantial renovations are required, unlike other countries, where habitability post-construction is checked as part of registration as a permanent resident. In plain English this means; if you are looking for permanent housing in a tax-competitive country, Bulgaria and rural Bulgaria in particular is a great option because the rural properties are both cheap and legally habitable. Of course, live-in renovation would be needed but how hard could that be? 😉
Now, this is not without its drawbacks - and there are some significant ones. Cheap houses are obviously cheap for a reason, water shortages, declining amenities and infrastructure, labour and materials shortages, and so on. But, the core seed of possibility is there, all it takes is a bit of water (no pun intended) and it's off to the races. The question then is one of opportunity. How can you find the right opportunity? A rural property with solid long-term potential in a settlement which is on the right side of the grow/die equation? The only way is to be on the ground in person, so that's why I'm here.
The search so far has included many villages in the central north of Bulgaria in a region called Veliko Tarnovo and the first impression is very mixed. On the one hand the scenery and overall geography of the country is stunning, in the north especially there are villages with clear line of sight to the Balkan mountains roughly 40km away, which make for some impressive backdrops. On the other, villages are typically not built atop any hills, but rather in the valleys inbetween (a sort of inverse-Tuscany if you will). This means that although from the top of the hill you can soak in a breathtaking sunrise, to live in a house there would mean staring at a hill less than 1km away essentially living in a big earthy bowl, hmmm. Also, it's clear that some settlements have enjoyed a good number of infrastructure upgrades, likely tied to heavy industry plants nearby, whilst others are left to succumb to the elements. It's common to find partially or fully collapsed buildings next to those which are lived in, but which have not had any renovation efforts put in over the last 40 years likely due to the limited income available in the area.
That said, there are some absolute gems. In particular there is a village called Vishovgrad in which many houses are renovated and many are available, although it lacks connectivity which for a non-driver which may be problematic. That said, the views are spectacular. The village is mainly built on the southern side of a hill facing down a valley straight to the Balkans, giving every house and garden an incredible view. Anyway, the mission this week is to continue the exploration, expanding the search south towards Gabrovo and Stara Zagora whilst continuing to dissect the heavily nuanced housing market.
Another interesting thing to note; there are essentially two markets running in parallel here, one for foreign investors and one for locals with price swings as high as +100% plus all sorts of facilitation fees and that sort of thing. This morning I was quoted €1500 as a facilitation charge as a buyer of properties in the €10k-€20k range. If you've ever done compliance training in any sort of trading adjacent role you'll remember the golden rule; NO FACILITATION CHARGES! Anyway, having experienced my fair share of lets call it 'dynamic pricing', this is just another Tuesday.
That's all for this week. Also reading this back I wanted to clarify that I'm still not 100% certain that investing in Bulgaria is the right move. After all, there is always the option to just continue travelling. However, packing everything up every few weeks does get a bit boring even once you're become a pro at it. I'll have a firmer picture in the coming weeks and look forward to writing up the findings in full. See you next time.
Thanks and all the best,
Oliver
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